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! Read the Canada COVID-19 epidemic models situation report No 30 - 2022-01-21 here.

Study update dates in uptake 20220121

DELP 20220121, IHME 20220121, IMPE 20220102, SRIV 20220119, PHAC 20220114

IHME: The previous [S1] "severe omicron" is not available in IHME update 20220121. The "current projection" or "reference scenario" is functionally the "worse scenario", i.e., the scenario with highest magnitude of estimated deaths and infections.

The current scenarios of IHME include:

(S1) Current projection, (S2) Reduced vaccine hesitancy, (S3) Third dose, (S4) 80% mask use

SRIV not included in graphs due to highly implausibly high estimates.

PHAC = PHAC-McMaster model, update 20220121 Public Health Agency of Canada. Update on COVID-19 in Canada: Epidemiology and Modelling, January 14, 2022. https://www.canada.ca/content/dam/phac-aspc/documents/services/diseases-maladies/coronavirus-disease-covid-19/epidemiological-economic-research-data/update-covid-19-canada-epidemiology-modelling-20220121-en.pdf

Summary of uptake 20220119 with IHME update 20220119, IMPE update 20220102, and PHAC update 20220114

Daily Deaths

The officially reported daily deaths are rising in Quebec (surpassed 70), British Columbia (surpassed 10), Manitoba (surpassed 8), New Brunswick (surpassed 3), and Nova Scotia (surpassed 2). Daily deaths peaked above 30 in Ontario before mid-January 2022.

The IHME model estimates show decline of the daily deaths started in about mid-January 2022 at the national level, Quebec, Ontario, Alberta, British Columbia, and Manitoba.

The officially reported daily deaths have surpassed IHME estimates at the national level, British Columbia, Manitoba, Nova Scotia, Quebec, and Saskatchewan.

Daily Cases or Infections

The officially reported daily cases are declining in Ontario, Quebec, and Alberta. Daily cases are rising in British Columbia and stagnating in other provinces and territories.

The IHME model estimates show decline of the daily infections started in late December 2021 at the national level, in Quebec, Ontario, British Columbia, and Manitoba, and to begin in early January 2022 in Alberta and Saskatchewan.

The PHAC model estimates show decline of the daily infections at the national level and in Quebec, Ontario, Alberta, Manitoba, British Columbia, and Saskatchewan in January 2022.

The PHAC model estimates – both their better and the worse scenario – were way higher than the officially reported daily cases in Alberta, British Columbia, Manitoba, Ontario, and Saskatchewan. However, the reported daily cases surpassed (above 70) both scenarios of the PHAC model in Quebec.

Peak Times

Comparison of previous IHME model estimates of peak times with official reports shows that the model estimates might have about two weeks error, i.e., their estimates of peak times might be within two weeks sooner to two weeks later than the peak times in the official reports.