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update projections/espn data
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dlm1223 committed Mar 20, 2019
1 parent 1caccce commit 41a50e1
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Binary file modified 2019/BracketResults_FullTournament_1000sims.Rda
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Binary file modified 2019/Improved-Brackets.Rda
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126 changes: 63 additions & 63 deletions 2019/WhoPickedWhom.csv
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R64,R32,S16,E8,F4,NCG
1Duke-97.7%,1Duke-94.4%,1Duke-87.2%,1Duke-70.6%,1Duke-55.9%,1Duke-38.7%
1North Carolina-97.2%,1North Carolina-92.4%,1North Carolina-77.6%,1North Carolina-56.5%,1North Carolina-36.3%,1North Carolina-15.2%
1Gonzaga-97.1%,1Virginia-89.6%,1Virginia-74.4%,1Gonzaga-42.2%,1Virginia-20.7%,1Gonzaga-8.4%
1Virginia-96.6%,2Kentucky-84.1%,2Michigan State-65.1%,1Virginia-42.1%,1Gonzaga-14.6%,1Virginia-7.6%
2Kentucky-96.3%,1Gonzaga-83.0%,1Gonzaga-63.4%,2Tennessee-32.1%,2Kentucky-13.2%,2Kentucky-5.1%
2Michigan State-95.8%,2Michigan State-82.6%,2Kentucky-62.9%,2Michigan-26.3%,2Tennessee-12.5%,2Michigan State-4.9%
2Tennessee-95.7%,2Tennessee-81.1%,2Tennessee-58.3%,2Kentucky-22.2%,2Michigan State-10.1%,2Tennessee-4.4%
2Michigan-95.6%,2Michigan-77.3%,2Michigan-55.5%,2Michigan State-17.0%,2Michigan-6.7%,2Michigan-3.3%
3Texas Tech-91.6%,3Texas Tech-66.0%,3Texas Tech-24.9%,3Texas Tech-9.9%,3Houston-2.4%,4Kansas-0.9%
3Houston-90.7%,4Virginia Tech-65.0%,4Florida St-19.7%,4Florida St-9.1%,3Purdue-2.2%,3Texas Tech-0.8%
3Purdue-89.8%,3LSU-60.6%,3LSU-19.2%,3Purdue-7.1%,3Texas Tech-2.1%,3Houston-0.8%
4Kansas-89.2%,4Florida St-59.6%,3Houston-19.0%,6Villanova-6.5%,4Kansas-2.1%,3Purdue-0.7%
4Florida St-88.1%,3Houston-58.4%,3Purdue-17.2%,3Houston-5.9%,6Villanova-2.0%,6Villanova-0.7%
4Virginia Tech-87.1%,3Purdue-50.0%,6Villanova-14.6%,4Kansas-4.1%,5Auburn-1.7%,3LSU-0.7%
3LSU-83.8%,4Kansas-47.9%,4Kansas State-9.0%,5Auburn-4.0%,4Florida St-1.7%,5Auburn-0.7%
5Auburn-81.7%,4Kansas State-43.6%,4Kansas-8.8%,3LSU-3.7%,3LSU-1.7%,4Florida St-0.7%
4Kansas State-80.5%,5Auburn-43.3%,5Auburn-8.6%,4Kansas State-3.0%,4Virginia Tech-1.0%,4Virginia Tech-0.4%
6Buffalo-80.4%,6Villanova-39.5%,6Iowa State-8.5%,4Virginia Tech-2.7%,5Wisconsin-0.8%,5Wisconsin-0.3%
6Villanova-76.6%,5Wisconsin-32.2%,6Buffalo-7.6%,5Wisconsin-2.5%,4Kansas State-0.8%,8Syracuse-0.3%
6Maryland-75.9%,6Iowa State-29.5%,5Wisconsin-7.3%,6Iowa State-2.1%,6Iowa State-0.8%,6Iowa State-0.3%
5Mississippi St-74.8%,6Buffalo-27.2%,4Virginia Tech-6.7%,5Marquette-2.1%,8Syracuse-0.6%,4Kansas State-0.3%
6Iowa State-71.2%,6Maryland-26.5%,7Louisville-6.0%,8Syracuse-2.1%,5Marquette-0.5%,5Marquette-0.2%
8Syracuse-66.9%,5Mississippi St-24.8%,5Marquette-5.4%,6Buffalo-2.0%,7Louisville-0.5%,7Louisville-0.2%
7Louisville-66.4%,5Marquette-22.8%,7Nevada-5.4%,7Cincinnati-1.7%,6Buffalo-0.5%,6Buffalo-0.2%
7Cincinnati-66.2%,12Oregon-18.1%,6Maryland-5.3%,7Nevada-1.7%,7Wofford-0.4%,12Murray State-0.2%
5Wisconsin-60.8%,12Murray State-13.8%,8Syracuse-5.2%,12Oregon-1.2%,12Oregon-0.4%,12Oregon-0.2%
5Marquette-57.8%,7Cincinnati-12.1%,7Cincinnati-5.0%,10Florida-1.2%,7Cincinnati-0.4%,7Wofford-0.2%
9UCF-54.5%,8Syracuse-11.9%,10Florida-4.0%,12Murray State-1.2%,7Nevada-0.4%,10Florida-0.2%
7Wofford-53.6%,7Louisville-11.8%,7Wofford-3.8%,7Louisville-1.2%,10Florida-0.4%,11Ohio State-0.2%
8Ole Miss-51.4%,7Nevada-11.7%,12Oregon-3.7%,7Wofford-1.2%,12Murray State-0.4%,6Maryland-0.2%
8Utah State-50.6%,10Florida-9.2%,12Murray State-3.1%,6Maryland-0.9%,6Maryland-0.4%,7Nevada-0.2%
7Nevada-50.5%,11Ohio State-9.2%,11Ohio State-2.1%,5Mississippi St-0.7%,11Ohio State-0.3%,7Cincinnati-0.2%
10Florida-49.5%,7Wofford-8.9%,5Mississippi St-2.1%,11Ohio State-0.7%,16NDS/NCC-0.3%,16Gardner-Webb-0.2%
9Washington-49.4%,11Saint Mary's-7.6%,10Seton Hall-2.0%,9Oklahoma-0.6%,16Gardner-Webb-0.3%,16Iona-0.2%
9Oklahoma-48.6%,11BEL/TEM-7.2%,9Oklahoma-1.8%,9Baylor-0.6%,5Mississippi St-0.3%,5Mississippi St-0.1%
10Seton Hall-46.4%,13UC Irvine-6.2%,8Ole Miss-1.8%,16Gardner-Webb-0.6%,16Iona-0.3%,9Oklahoma-0.1%
8VCU-45.5%,12New Mexico St-6.0%,11Saint Mary's-1.7%,11Saint Mary's-0.6%,9Oklahoma-0.2%,9Washington-0.1%
12Murray State-42.2%,14Yale-5.7%,9Baylor-1.6%,8Ole Miss-0.5%,9Washington-0.2%,8Utah State-0.1%
12Oregon-39.2%,12Liberty-5.3%,10Iowa-1.6%,10Seton Hall-0.5%,10Seton Hall-0.2%,9UCF-0.1%
10Iowa-33.8%,10Seton Hall-5.3%,10Minnesota-1.4%,16Iona-0.5%,9Baylor-0.2%,10Minnesota-0.1%
1Duke-97.7%,1Duke-94.4%,1Duke-87.1%,1Duke-70.3%,1Duke-55.5%,1Duke-38.2%
1North Carolina-97.2%,1North Carolina-92.4%,1North Carolina-77.6%,1North Carolina-56.5%,1North Carolina-36.5%,1North Carolina-15.4%
1Gonzaga-97.0%,1Virginia-89.6%,1Virginia-74.5%,1Gonzaga-42.2%,1Virginia-20.7%,1Gonzaga-8.5%
1Virginia-96.6%,2Kentucky-84.1%,2Michigan State-65.4%,1Virginia-42.1%,1Gonzaga-14.8%,1Virginia-7.7%
2Kentucky-96.4%,1Gonzaga-83.1%,1Gonzaga-63.5%,2Tennessee-32.2%,2Kentucky-13.2%,2Kentucky-5.2%
2Michigan State-95.9%,2Michigan State-82.7%,2Kentucky-62.7%,2Michigan-26.4%,2Tennessee-12.5%,2Michigan State-5.0%
2Tennessee-95.7%,2Tennessee-81.2%,2Tennessee-58.3%,2Kentucky-22.2%,2Michigan State-10.4%,2Tennessee-4.4%
2Michigan-95.6%,2Michigan-77.3%,2Michigan-55.4%,2Michigan State-17.4%,2Michigan-6.8%,2Michigan-3.3%
3Texas Tech-91.7%,3Texas Tech-66.1%,3Texas Tech-25.1%,3Texas Tech-10.0%,3Houston-2.4%,4Kansas-0.9%
3Houston-90.8%,4Virginia Tech-65.0%,4Florida St-19.7%,4Florida St-9.0%,3Purdue-2.2%,3Texas Tech-0.8%
3Purdue-89.8%,3LSU-60.2%,3Houston-19.1%,3Purdue-7.1%,3Texas Tech-2.1%,3Houston-0.8%
4Kansas-89.1%,4Florida St-59.5%,3LSU-19.0%,6Villanova-6.4%,4Kansas-2.1%,3Purdue-0.8%
4Florida St-88.1%,3Houston-58.5%,3Purdue-17.3%,3Houston-5.9%,6Villanova-2.0%,6Villanova-0.7%
4Virginia Tech-87.2%,3Purdue-50.1%,6Villanova-14.5%,4Kansas-4.1%,4Florida St-1.7%,3LSU-0.7%
3LSU-83.6%,4Kansas-47.9%,4Kansas State-9.0%,5Auburn-4.0%,5Auburn-1.7%,4Florida St-0.7%
5Auburn-81.6%,5Auburn-43.3%,4Kansas-8.8%,3LSU-3.7%,3LSU-1.7%,5Auburn-0.7%
6Buffalo-80.5%,4Kansas State-43.3%,5Auburn-8.6%,4Kansas State-3.0%,4Virginia Tech-1.0%,4Virginia Tech-0.4%
4Kansas State-80.1%,6Villanova-39.6%,6Iowa State-8.5%,4Virginia Tech-2.7%,5Wisconsin-0.8%,5Wisconsin-0.3%
6Villanova-76.6%,5Wisconsin-32.4%,6Buffalo-7.6%,5Wisconsin-2.5%,4Kansas State-0.8%,8Syracuse-0.3%
5Mississippi St-74.7%,6Iowa State-29.5%,5Wisconsin-7.3%,6Iowa State-2.1%,6Iowa State-0.8%,6Iowa State-0.3%
6Maryland-74.0%,6Buffalo-27.2%,4Virginia Tech-6.8%,5Marquette-2.1%,8Syracuse-0.6%,4Kansas State-0.3%
6Iowa State-71.3%,6Maryland-26.0%,7Louisville-6.0%,8Syracuse-2.0%,5Marquette-0.5%,5Marquette-0.2%
8Syracuse-66.7%,5Mississippi St-24.9%,5Marquette-5.5%,6Buffalo-2.0%,7Louisville-0.5%,6Buffalo-0.2%
7Louisville-66.4%,5Marquette-23.0%,7Nevada-5.4%,7Nevada-1.7%,6Buffalo-0.5%,7Louisville-0.2%
7Cincinnati-66.0%,12Oregon-18.2%,6Maryland-5.2%,7Cincinnati-1.7%,7Wofford-0.4%,12Oregon-0.2%
5Wisconsin-60.7%,12Murray State-13.7%,8Syracuse-5.1%,12Oregon-1.2%,12Oregon-0.4%,12Murray State-0.2%
5Marquette-57.8%,7Cincinnati-12.1%,7Cincinnati-4.9%,10Florida-1.2%,7Cincinnati-0.4%,7Wofford-0.2%
9UCF-54.7%,8Syracuse-11.8%,10Florida-4.0%,12Murray State-1.2%,7Nevada-0.4%,10Florida-0.2%
7Wofford-53.7%,7Nevada-11.8%,7Wofford-3.8%,7Louisville-1.2%,10Florida-0.4%,11Ohio State-0.2%
8Ole Miss-51.4%,7Louisville-11.7%,12Oregon-3.6%,7Wofford-1.2%,12Murray State-0.4%,6Maryland-0.2%
7Nevada-50.7%,10Florida-9.2%,12Murray State-3.0%,6Maryland-0.9%,6Maryland-0.4%,7Nevada-0.2%
8Utah State-50.7%,11Ohio State-9.1%,11Ohio State-2.1%,5Mississippi St-0.7%,11Ohio State-0.3%,7Cincinnati-0.2%
9Washington-49.3%,7Wofford-9.0%,5Mississippi St-2.1%,11Ohio State-0.7%,16NDS/NCC-0.3%,16Gardner-Webb-0.2%
10Florida-49.3%,11Belmont-8.1%,10Seton Hall-2.0%,9Oklahoma-0.6%,5Mississippi St-0.3%,16Iona-0.2%
9Oklahoma-48.6%,11Saint Mary's-7.6%,9Oklahoma-1.8%,9Baylor-0.6%,16Gardner-Webb-0.3%,5Mississippi St-0.1%
10Seton Hall-46.3%,13UC Irvine-6.2%,8Ole Miss-1.8%,16Gardner-Webb-0.6%,16Iona-0.3%,9Oklahoma-0.1%
8VCU-45.3%,12New Mexico St-6.0%,11Saint Mary's-1.7%,11Saint Mary's-0.6%,9Oklahoma-0.2%,9Washington-0.1%
12Murray State-42.3%,14Yale-5.7%,9Baylor-1.6%,8Ole Miss-0.5%,9Washington-0.2%,8Utah State-0.1%
12Oregon-39.3%,12Liberty-5.4%,10Iowa-1.6%,10Seton Hall-0.5%,10Seton Hall-0.2%,9UCF-0.1%
10Iowa-34.0%,10Seton Hall-5.3%,10Minnesota-1.4%,16Iona-0.5%,9Baylor-0.2%,10Minnesota-0.1%
10Minnesota-33.6%,10Iowa-4.9%,8Utah State-1.3%,9Washington-0.5%,8Ole Miss-0.2%,10Iowa-0.1%
9Baylor-33.1%,13Saint Louis-4.9%,9Washington-1.3%,16F. Dickinson-0.5%,8Utah State-0.2%,10Seton Hall-0.1%
11Ohio State-28.8%,9Oklahoma-4.6%,13UC Irvine-1.2%,10Iowa-0.5%,10Iowa-0.2%,16NDS/NCC-0.1%
12Liberty-25.2%,8Ole Miss-4.2%,9UCF-1.1%,16NDS/NCC-0.5%,16F. Dickinson-0.2%,8Ole Miss-0.1%
11BEL/TEM-24.1%,11ASU/SJU-3.9%,14Yale-1.0%,8Utah State-0.5%,9UCF-0.2%,9Baylor-0.1%
11Saint Mary's-23.4%,9Baylor-3.8%,15Bradley-1.0%,9UCF-0.4%,10Minnesota-0.2%,15Abil Christian-0.1%
11ASU/SJU-19.6%,10Minnesota-3.8%,12New Mexico St-1.0%,13UC Irvine-0.4%,11Saint Mary's-0.2%,11Saint Mary's-0.1%
13UC Irvine-19.5%,13Vermont-3.8%,15Montana-1.0%,10Minnesota-0.4%,15Abil Christian-0.2%,14Yale-0.1%
12New Mexico St-18.3%,8Utah State-3.2%,15Colgate-1.0%,8VCU-0.4%,14Yale-0.2%,8VCU-0.1%
14Yale-16.2%,9Washington-3.1%,15Abil Christian-1.0%,12New Mexico St-0.4%,8VCU-0.2%,11ASU/SJU-0.1%
13Saint Louis-12.9%,14Georgia State-2.9%,11BEL/TEM-0.9%,14Yale-0.3%,13UC Irvine-0.2%,13UC Irvine-0.1%
13Vermont-11.9%,14N Kentucky-2.9%,11ASU/SJU-0.9%,11ASU/SJU-0.3%,11ASU/SJU-0.1%,12Liberty-0.1%
13Northeastern-10.8%,13Northeastern-2.9%,16Gardner-Webb-0.9%,15Abil Christian-0.3%,12New Mexico St-0.1%,12New Mexico St-0.1%
14Old Dominion-10.2%,14Old Dominion-2.9%,8VCU-0.9%,12Liberty-0.3%,15Montana-0.1%,13Saint Louis-0.1%
14Georgia State-9.3%,9UCF-2.4%,16Iona-0.8%,15Montana-0.3%,12Liberty-0.1%,13Northeastern-0.1%
14N Kentucky-8.4%,8VCU-2.1%,13Vermont-0.8%,13Vermont-0.3%,13Saint Louis-0.1%,16F. Dickinson-0.1%
15Montana-4.4%,15Colgate-1.8%,16F. Dickinson-0.8%,15Colgate-0.3%,13Vermont-0.1%,11BEL/TEM-0.1%
15Colgate-4.3%,15Bradley-1.8%,16NDS/NCC-0.7%,13Saint Louis-0.3%,13Northeastern-0.1%,13Vermont-0.1%
15Bradley-4.2%,15Montana-1.8%,14Old Dominion-0.7%,15Bradley-0.3%,14Old Dominion-0.1%,14Old Dominion-0.1%
15Abil Christian-3.7%,15Abil Christian-1.7%,14Georgia State-0.7%,11BEL/TEM-0.3%,14Georgia State-0.1%,14Georgia State-0.1%
16Gardner-Webb-3.4%,16Gardner-Webb-1.6%,12Liberty-0.7%,13Northeastern-0.3%,15Bradley-0.1%,15Bradley-0.1%
16F. Dickinson-2.9%,16Iona-1.4%,13Saint Louis-0.7%,14Old Dominion-0.3%,15Colgate-0.1%,15Montana-0.1%
16Iona-2.9%,16F. Dickinson-1.3%,13Northeastern-0.7%,14N Kentucky-0.3%,14N Kentucky-0.1%,15Colgate-0.1%
16NDS/NCC-2.3%,16NDS/NCC-1.2%,14N Kentucky-0.7%,14Georgia State-0.3%,11BEL/TEM-0.1%,14N Kentucky-0.0%
9Baylor-33.3%,13Saint Louis-4.8%,9Washington-1.3%,16F. Dickinson-0.5%,16F. Dickinson-0.2%,10Seton Hall-0.1%
11Ohio State-28.7%,9Oklahoma-4.6%,13UC Irvine-1.2%,10Iowa-0.5%,8Utah State-0.2%,16NDS/NCC-0.1%
11Belmont-26.1%,8Ole Miss-4.2%,11Belmont-1.1%,16NDS/NCC-0.5%,10Iowa-0.2%,8Ole Miss-0.1%
12Liberty-25.3%,11ASU/SJU-3.9%,9UCF-1.1%,8Utah State-0.5%,9UCF-0.2%,9Baylor-0.1%
11Saint Mary's-23.4%,9Baylor-3.8%,14Yale-1.0%,9UCF-0.4%,10Minnesota-0.2%,15Abil Christian-0.1%
13UC Irvine-19.9%,10Minnesota-3.8%,12New Mexico St-1.0%,13UC Irvine-0.4%,11Saint Mary's-0.2%,11Saint Mary's-0.1%
11ASU/SJU-19.5%,13Vermont-3.8%,15Bradley-1.0%,10Minnesota-0.4%,15Abil Christian-0.2%,14Yale-0.1%
12New Mexico St-18.4%,8Utah State-3.2%,15Montana-1.0%,8VCU-0.4%,14Yale-0.2%,8VCU-0.1%
14Yale-16.4%,9Washington-3.1%,15Colgate-1.0%,12New Mexico St-0.4%,8VCU-0.2%,11ASU/SJU-0.1%
13Saint Louis-12.9%,14Georgia State-2.9%,15Abil Christian-1.0%,14Yale-0.3%,13UC Irvine-0.2%,13UC Irvine-0.1%
13Vermont-11.9%,13Northeastern-2.9%,11ASU/SJU-0.9%,11ASU/SJU-0.3%,11ASU/SJU-0.1%,16F. Dickinson-0.1%
13Northeastern-10.9%,14N Kentucky-2.9%,16Gardner-Webb-0.9%,15Abil Christian-0.3%,12New Mexico St-0.1%,12Liberty-0.1%
14Old Dominion-10.2%,14Old Dominion-2.8%,8VCU-0.9%,12Liberty-0.3%,12Liberty-0.1%,12New Mexico St-0.1%
14Georgia State-9.3%,9UCF-2.4%,16Iona-0.8%,15Montana-0.3%,13Saint Louis-0.1%,13Saint Louis-0.1%
14N Kentucky-8.3%,8VCU-2.1%,13Vermont-0.8%,11Belmont-0.3%,15Montana-0.1%,13Northeastern-0.1%
15Montana-4.4%,15Colgate-1.8%,16F. Dickinson-0.8%,13Saint Louis-0.3%,13Vermont-0.1%,11Belmont-0.1%
15Colgate-4.3%,15Bradley-1.8%,14Old Dominion-0.7%,13Vermont-0.3%,13Northeastern-0.1%,13Vermont-0.1%
15Bradley-4.1%,15Montana-1.8%,16NDS/NCC-0.7%,15Colgate-0.3%,14Old Dominion-0.1%,14Old Dominion-0.1%
15Abil Christian-3.7%,15Abil Christian-1.7%,14Georgia State-0.7%,13Northeastern-0.3%,14Georgia State-0.1%,14Georgia State-0.1%
16Gardner-Webb-3.4%,16Gardner-Webb-1.6%,12Liberty-0.7%,14Old Dominion-0.3%,15Bradley-0.1%,15Bradley-0.1%
16F. Dickinson-3.0%,16Iona-1.4%,13Saint Louis-0.7%,15Bradley-0.3%,15Colgate-0.1%,15Montana-0.1%
16Iona-2.8%,16F. Dickinson-1.3%,13Northeastern-0.7%,14Georgia State-0.3%,11Belmont-0.1%,15Colgate-0.1%
16NDS/NCC-2.3%,16NDS/NCC-1.2%,14N Kentucky-0.7%,14N Kentucky-0.3%,14N Kentucky-0.1%,14N Kentucky-0.0%
6 changes: 3 additions & 3 deletions 4-optimize-brackets.R
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Expand Up @@ -20,7 +20,7 @@ load("data/game-data.RData")
# input<-list(r1=10, r2=20, r3=40, r4=80, r5=160, r6=320, upset1_mult=1, upset2_mult=1, upset3_mult=1,
# r1_seed_mult=0, r2_seed_mult=0, r3_seed_mult=0, r4_seed_mult=0, r5_seed_mult=0, r6_seed_mult=0,
# r1_seed_bonus=0, r2_seed_bonus=0, r3_seed_bonus=0, r4_seed_bonus=0, r5_seed_bonus=0, r6_seed_bonus=0,
# year=year)
# year=year)
#b-league
input<-list(r1=1, r2=2, r3=4, r4=8, r5=16, r6=32, upset1_mult=1, upset2_mult=1, upset3_mult=1,
r1_seed_mult=1, r2_seed_mult=1, r3_seed_mult=1, r4_seed_mult=1, r5_seed_mult=1, r6_seed_mult=1,
Expand Down Expand Up @@ -488,7 +488,7 @@ customBracket1<-calcBrackets(customBracket1, brackets = brackets, tourneySims =
customBracket2<-brackets[, 1:63]
customBracket2<-data.frame(rbindlist(lapply(1:nrow(customBracket2), function(x) optimizeRounds(rounds = c("R1", "R2", "R3"),fixed.rounds = "R4", bracket=customBracket2[x, ] ))))
customBracket2<-calcBrackets(customBracket2, brackets = brackets, tourneySims = tourneySims)

#
# save(customBracket2, file=paste0(year,"/Improved-Brackets.Rda"))


Expand Down Expand Up @@ -525,7 +525,7 @@ customBracket1.5<-customBracket1.5[!duplicated(customBracket1.5[, 1:63]),]
improved<-list(brackets,customBracket0, customBracket1,customBracket1.5, customBracket2,
customBracket3, customBracket4, customBracket5, customBracket6)
numBrackets<-1
percentile<-.9
percentile<-.94
cl<-makeCluster(2, type = "SOCK")
registerDoSNOW(cl)
results<- foreach(i=improved,
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