! Read the GLOBAL and REGIONAL COVID-19 epidemic models situation report No 21 - 2021-12-21 here
DELP 20211222, IHME 20211221, IMPE 20211205, SRIV 20211219
OUTCOME TYPE: Estimated daily infections include both asymptomatic and symptomatic cases, both undetected and detected cases, and all the mild, moderate, and severe cases. Number of daily infections are, by definition, more than the detected symptomatic cases.
RISE TIME: Number of estimated daily infections rise first at the Global level, AFRO, and EURO (in mid- to late November 2021), followed by AMRO, SEARO, and EMRO (in December 2021), and in WPRO (in February 2022).
PEAK TIME: In AFRO, estimated daily infections peak in December 2021; in EURO an at the Global level in January 2022, In AMRO and EMRO in late January to early February 2022, and in SEARO and WPRO in early to mid-February 2022. Peak times are about (plus or minus) two weeks accurate.
Table 1 - Peak values and dates of estimated daily infections by location
PEAK VALUE: Number of estimated daily infections might reach 38 million at the Global level, 12 million in SEARO, 8 million in EURO, 7 million in AMRO and in AFRO, 5 million in EMRO, and 1 million in WPRO.
SURPASS EXPECTED: Numbers of estimated daily infections in this wave are expected to surpass the highest numbers from the previous waves in EURO (by a factor of about 6); AFRO and AMRO (each by a factor of about 4); at the Global level (by a factor of about 3); EMRO (by a factor of about 2.5), in WPRO (by a factor of about 2), and in SEARO (by a factor of about 1.2).
Estimated daily deaths are not expected to surpass those seen in previous wases at the global and regional levels.
Among the regions, the highest numbers of estimated daily deaths are expected be seen in EURO (about > 5,000 in late January 2022), and in AMRO (about 3,000 in early February 2022). At the Global level, the number of estimated daily deaths are expected to peak at about > 9,000 at late January to early February 2022.
WHO Regeions
Source: Our World In Data
https://ourworldindata.org/world-region-map-definitions
Selected graphs - Global
Selected graphs - Regions together
Selected graphs - African region (AFRO)
Selected graphs - Americas region (AMRO)
Selected graphs - Eastern Mediterranean region (EMRO)
Selected graphs - European region (EURO)
Selected graphs - South-East Asian region (SEARO)
Selected graphs - Western Pacific region (WPRO)
(1) Global Daily deaths, reference scenarios, all time
(2) Global Daily deaths, reference scenarios, 2021
(2b) Global Daily deaths, reference scenarios, 2021, with IHME excess deaths
(3) Global Daily deaths, 3 scenarios, 2021
(3b) Global Daily deaths, 3 scenarios, 2021, IHME
(3b2) Global Daily deaths, 5 scenarios, 2021, IHME
(3c) Global Daily deaths, 3 scenarios, 2021, IMPE
(4) Global Daily cases or infections, reference scenarios, all time
(5) Global Daily cases or infections, reference scenarios, 2021
(6) Global Daily cases or infections, 3 scenarios, 2021
(6a) Global Daily cases or infections, 5 scenarios, IHME 2021
(6b) Global Daily cases, 2021
(6c) Global Daily estimated infections IHME IMPE to reported cases JOHN, main scenarios, 2021
(7) Global Hospital-related outcomes, all time
(8) Global Hospital-related outcomes, 2021, without IHME Bed need and IMPE Hospital demand
(9) Global Daily deaths estimated to reported, reference scenarios, 2021
(11) Global Daily Infection outcomes ratios, 3 scenarios, all time, IHME
(11b) Global Daily Infection -detection and -hospitalizations ratios, 3 scenarios, all time, IHME
(12) Global Daily mobility, 3 scenarios, all time, IHME
(13) Global Daily mask use, 3 scenarios, IHME
(14) Global Percent cumulative vaccinated, IHME
Outcomes: Reported deaths, Excess deaths (IHME), Infections or Cases (IHME and IMPE provide Infections, DELP and SRIV provide cases)
Daily or total: Daily, Total
Models: IHME and IMPE, DELP and SRIV
Global: With Global, Without Global
IHME: 2021 on, 2022
(1) Regions together Daily deaths, with GLOBAL, IHME, IMPE, all time
(1b) Regions together Daily deaths, with GLOBAL, IHME, 2021 on
(1c) Regions together Daily deaths, with GLOBAL, IHME, 2022
(2) Regions together Daily deaths, without GLOBAL, IHME, IMPE, all time
(2b) Regions together Daily deaths, without GLOBAL, IHME, 2021 on
(2c) Regions together Daily deaths, without GLOBAL, IHME, 2022
(3) Regions together Daily deaths, with GLOBAL, DELP, SRIV, all time
(4) Regions together Daily deaths, without GLOBAL, DELP, SRIV, all time
(5) Regions together Daily excess deaths, with GLOBAL, IHME, all time
(6) Regions together Daily excess deaths, without GLOBAL, IHME, all time
(7) Regions together Daily infections, with GLOBAL, IHME, IMPE, all time
(7b) Regions together Daily infections, with GLOBAL, IHME, 2021 on
(7c) Regions together Daily infections, with GLOBAL, IHME, 2022
(8) Regions together Daily infections, without GLOBAL, IHME, IMPE, all time
(8b) Regions together Daily infections, without GLOBAL, IHME, 2021 on
(8c) Regions together Daily infections, without GLOBAL, IHME, 2022
(9) Regions together Daily cases, with GLOBAL, DELP, SRIV, all time
(10) Regions together Daily cases, without GLOBAL, DELP, SRIV, all time
(11) Regions together Total deaths, with GLOBAL, IHME, IMPE, all time
(12) Regions together Total deaths, without GLOBAL, IHME, IMPE, all time
(13) Regions together Total deaths, with GLOBAL, DELP, SRIV, all time
(14) Regions together Total deaths, without GLOBAL, DELP, SRIV, all time
(15) Regions together Total excess deaths, with GLOBAL, IHME, all time
(16) Regions together Total excess deaths, without GLOBAL, IHME, all time
(17) Regions together Total infections, with GLOBAL, IHME, IMPE, all time
(18) Regions together Total infections, without GLOBAL, IHME, IMPE, all time
(19) Regions together Total cases, with GLOBAL, DELP, SRIV, all time
(20) Regions together Total cases, without GLOBAL, DELP, SRIV, all time
(1) African region Daily deaths, reference scenarios, all time
(2) African region Daily deaths, reference scenarios, 2021
(2b) African region Daily deaths, reference scenarios, 2021, with IHME excess deaths
(3) African region Daily deaths, 3 scenarios, 2021
(3b) African region Daily deaths, 3 scenarios, 2021, IHME
(3b2) African region Daily deaths, 5 scenarios, 2021, IHME
(3c) African region Daily deaths, 3 scenarios, 2021, IMPE
(4) African region Daily cases or infections, reference scenarios, all time
(5) African region Daily cases or infections, reference scenarios, 2021
(6) African region Daily cases or infections, 3 scenarios, 2021
(6b) African region Daily cases, 2021
(6c) African region Daily estimated infections IHME IMPE to reported cases JOHN, main scenarios, 2021
(7) African region Hospital-related outcomes, all time
(8) African region Hospital-related outcomes, 2021, without IHME Bed need and IMPE Hospital demand
(9) African region Daily deaths estimated to reported, reference scenarios, 2021
(1) Americas region Daily deaths, reference scenarios, all time
(2) Americas region Daily deaths, reference scenarios, 2021
(2b) Americas region Daily deaths, reference scenarios, 2021, with IHME excess deaths
(3) Americas region Daily deaths, 3 scenarios, 2021
(3b) Americas region Daily deaths, 3 scenarios, 2021, IHME
(3b2) Americas region Daily deaths, 5 scenarios, 2021, IHME
(3c) Americas region Daily deaths, 3 scenarios, 2021, IMPE
(4) Americas region Daily cases or infections, reference scenarios, all time
(5) Americas region Daily cases or infections, reference scenarios, 2021
(6) Americas region Daily cases or infections, 3 scenarios, 2021
(6b) Americas region Daily cases, 2021
(6c) Americas region Daily estimated infections IHME IMPE to reported cases JOHN, main scenarios, 2021
(7) Americas region Hospital-related outcomes, all time
(8) Americas region Hospital-related outcomes, 2021, without IHME Bed need and IMPE Hospital demand
(9) Americas region Daily deaths estimated to reported, reference scenarios, 2021
(1) Eastern Mediterranean region Daily deaths, reference scenarios, all time
(2) Eastern Mediterranean region Daily deaths, reference scenarios, 2021
(2b) Eastern Mediterranean region Daily deaths, reference scenarios, 2021, with IHME excess deaths
(3) Eastern Mediterranean region Daily deaths, 3 scenarios, 2021
(3b) Eastern Mediterranean region Daily deaths, 3 scenarios, 2021, IHME
(3b2) Eastern Mediterranean region Daily deaths, 5 scenarios, 2021, IHME
(3c) Eastern Mediterranean region Daily deaths, 3 scenarios, 2021, IMPE
(4) Eastern Mediterranean region Daily cases or infections, reference scenarios, all time
(5) Eastern Mediterranean region Daily cases or infections, reference scenarios, 2021
(6) Eastern Mediterranean region Daily cases or infections, 3 scenarios, 2021
(6b) Eastern Mediterranean region Daily cases, 2021
(6c) Eastern Mediterranean region Daily estimated infections IHME IMPE to reported cases JOHN, main scenarios, 2021
(7) Eastern Mediterranean region Hospital-related outcomes, all time
(8) Eastern Mediterranean region Hospital-related outcomes, 2021, without IHME Bed need and IMPE Hospital demand
(9) Eastern Mediterranean region Daily deaths estimated to reported, reference scenarios, 2021
(1) European region Daily deaths, reference scenarios, all time
(2) European region Daily deaths, reference scenarios, 2021
(2b) European region Daily deaths, reference scenarios, 2021, with IHME excess deaths
(3) European region Daily deaths, 3 scenarios, 2021
(3b) European region Daily deaths, 3 scenarios, 2021, IHME
(3b2) European region Daily deaths, 5 scenarios, 2021, IHME
(3c) European region Daily deaths, 3 scenarios, 2021, IMPE
(4) European region Daily cases or infections, reference scenarios, all time
(5) European region Daily cases or infections, reference scenarios, 2021
(6) European region Daily cases or infections, 3 scenarios, 2021
(6b) European region Daily cases, 2021
(6c) European region Daily estimated infections IHME IMPE to reported cases JOHN, main scenarios, 2021
(7) European region Hospital-related outcomes, all time
(8) European region Hospital-related outcomes, 2021, without IHME Bed need and IMPE Hospital demand
(9) European region Daily deaths estimated to reported, reference scenarios, 2021
(1) South-East Asian region Daily deaths, reference scenarios, all time
(2) South-East Asian region Daily deaths, reference scenarios, 2021
(2b) South-East Asian region Daily deaths, reference scenarios, 2021, with IHME excess deaths
(3) South-East Asian region Daily deaths, 3 scenarios, 2021
(3b) South-East Asian region Daily deaths, 3 scenarios, 2021, IHME
(3b2) South-East Asian region Daily deaths, 5 scenarios, 2021, IHME
(3c) South-East Asian region Daily deaths, 3 scenarios, 2021, IMPE
(4) South-East Asian region Daily cases or infections, reference scenarios, all time
(5) South-East Asian region Daily cases or infections, reference scenarios, 2021
(6) South-East Asian region Daily cases or infections, 3 scenarios, 2021
(6b) South-East Asian region Daily cases, 2021
(6c) South-East Asian region Daily estimated infections IHME IMPE to reported cases JOHN, main scenarios, 2021
(7) South-East Asian region Hospital-related outcomes, all time
(8) South-East Asian region Hospital-related outcomes, 2021, without IHME Bed need and IMPE Hospital demand
(9) South-East Asian region Daily deaths estimated to reported, reference scenarios, 2021
(1) Western Pacific region Daily deaths, reference scenarios, all time
(2) Western Pacific region Daily deaths, reference scenarios, 2021
(2b) Western Pacific region Daily deaths, reference scenarios, 2021, with IHME excess deaths
(3) Western Pacific region Daily deaths, 3 scenarios, 2021
(3b) Western Pacific region Daily deaths, 3 scenarios, 2021, IHME
(3b2) Western Pacific region Daily deaths, 5 scenarios, 2021, IHME
(3c) Western Pacific region Daily deaths, 3 scenarios, 2021, IMPE
(4) Western Pacific region Daily cases or infections, reference scenarios, all time
(5) Western Pacific region Daily cases or infections, reference scenarios, 2021
(6) Western Pacific region Daily cases or infections, 3 scenarios, 2021
(6b) Western Pacific region Daily cases, 2021
(6c) Western Pacific region Daily estimated infections IHME IMPE to reported cases JOHN, main scenarios, 2021
(7) Western Pacific region Hospital-related outcomes, all time
(8) Western Pacific region Hospital-related outcomes, 2021, without IHME Bed need and IMPE Hospital demand
(9) Western Pacific region Daily deaths estimated to reported, reference scenarios, 2021
