DELP 20210806, IHME 20210806, IMPE 20210719, LANL 20210801, SRIV 20210801
IHME update 20210806 creates directory 2021_08_04 with web address https://ihmecovid19storage.blob.core.windows.net/latest/ihme-covid19.zip when downloaded on 20210820 1800 PST.
- IMPE model "old fits" are gone
On 20210824, the Imperial College COVID-19 model/study removed their "old fits" – all previously released updates from day 1 up to and including IMPE update 20210719. As of 20210824, the IMPE update 20210806 is the earliest IMPE update available at https://github.com/mrc-ide/global-lmic-reports/tree/master/data. IMPE update 20210719 and earlier are no longer available.
This means the Imperial College COVID-19 model/study is no more a periodically updated study with ACCESSIBLE updates.
Shooting this trouble IMPE model includes -// commenting out- the line
do "$pathCovidVisualizedGlobal/IMPE/do CovidVisualizedGlobal IMPE.do"
in /Users/username/Downloads/CovidVisualizedGlobal-main/20210806/code/master/do CovidVisualizedGlobal master.do
and dates 2021???? before 20210806.
However, the previously stored results, such as the graphs stored in "CovidVisualizedGlobal-main/20210806/output/merge/asterisk.pdf" and
"CovidVisualizedGlobal-main/20210806/output/IMPE/asterisk.pdf" preserve a graphical copy of previously accessed the Imperial College COVID-19 model/study removed updates.
Merged graphs of this uptake here
Note: In the latest update of SRIV as of 20210806, that is SRIV update 20210801, predictions of daily deaths and daily cases are very high. The very high predictions of daily deaths by SRIV compress down and obscure the predictions of daily deaths by other models in the first three graphs below. Graph (3b) Daily deaths, 3 scenarios, 2021, IHME, and graph (3c) Daily deaths, 3 scenarios, 2021, IMPE, reveal the predictions by IHME and IMPE, respectively.
(1) Daily deaths, reference scenarios, all time
(2) Daily deaths, reference scenarios, 2021
(3) Daily deaths, 3 scenarios, 2021
(3b) Daily deaths, 3 scenarios, 2021, IHME
(3c) Daily deaths, 3 scenarios, 2021, IMPE
(4) Daily cases or infections, reference scenarios, all time
(5) Daily cases or infections, reference scenarios, 2021
(6) Daily cases or infections, 3 scenarios, 2021
(7) Hospital-related outcomes, all time
(8) Hospital-related outcomes, 2021, without IHME Bed need and IMPE Hospital demand
(9) Daily deaths estimated to reported, reference scenarios, 2021
(10) Daily cases or infections estimated to reported cases, reference scenarios, 2021
