! Read the GLOBAL and REGIONAL COVID-19 epidemic models situation report No 22 - 2022-01-04 here
DELP 20220104, IHME 20211221, IMPE 20211213, SRIV 20220104
IMPE update 20211213 (2021-12-13_v9.csv.zip) released on 20220202.
In DELP update 20220104, Global daily deaths start from about 800,000 around 2021-10-01 and come down toward plausible values around 2021-10-22. Similar issue in WHO regions and in Daily Cases. Such values compress down the curves of other models in daily deaths graphs. As such, the implausible values are regarded as missing here.
- S01 = Current projection [Status Quo, Reference scenario]
- S02 = 80% mask use [Best scenario]
- S03 = High severity of Omicron [Worse scenario]
- S04 = Third dose of vaccine [Second best scenario]
- S05 = Reduced vaccine hesitancy [Third best scenario]
IHME Detected Infections vs. All Infections. "Probably detected infections at the global level will be three times that previous peak that we saw for delta." Source: IHME COVID-19 Model Insights Blog
IMPE has included the Omicron variant in their model, as explained here: https://mrc-ide.github.io/global-lmic-reports/News.html
"For certain countries the impact of the Delta variant is now included in the model. Timings for the delta variant are derived from CoVariants. For more information see updates to the model parameters and methods page.
DELP does not readily mentioned inclusion of Omicron in their model. However, their estimated cases show unprecedented increase.
SRIV does not readily mentioned inclusion of Omicron in their model, except, “Caution: Expect unreliable forecasts due to under-reporting around holidays and uncertainty in the prevalence of the Omicron variant.” However, their estimated cases show unprecedented increase.
Merged graphs of this uptake here
Selected graphs - Global
Selected graphs - Regions together
Selected graphs - African region (AFRO)
Selected graphs - Americas region (AMRO)
AMRO is devided to AMR1 and AMR2:
Selected graphs - Americas region, Canada and United States (AMR1)
Selected graphs - Americas region, without Canada and United States (AMR2)
Selected graphs - Eastern Mediterranean region (EMRO)
Selected graphs - European region (EURO)
Selected graphs - South-East Asian region (SEARO)
Selected graphs - Western Pacific region (WPRO)
(1) Global Daily deaths, reference scenarios, all time
(2) Global Daily deaths, reference scenarios, 2021 on
(2b) Global Daily deaths, reference scenarios, 2021 on, with IHME excess deaths
(3) Global Daily deaths, 3 scenarios, 2021 on
(3b) Global Daily deaths, 3 scenarios, 2021 on, IHME
(3c) Global Daily deaths, 3 scenarios, 2021 on, IMPE
(4) Global Daily cases or infections, reference scenarios, all time
(5) Global Daily cases or infections, reference scenarios, 2021 on
(6) Global Daily cases or infections, 3 scenarios, 2021 on
(6b) Global Daily cases, 2021 on
(6c) Global Daily estimated infections IHME IMPE to reported cases JOHN, main scenarios, 2021 on
(7) Global Hospital-related outcomes, all time
(8) Global Hospital-related outcomes, 2021 on, without IHME Bed need and IMPE Hospital demand
(9) Global Daily deaths estimated to reported, reference scenarios, 2021 on
(11) Global Daily Infection outcomes ratios, 3 scenarios, all time, IHME
(11b) Global Daily Infection -detection and -hospitalizations ratios, 3 scenarios, all time, IHME
(12) Global Daily mobility, 3 scenarios, all time, IHME
(13) Global Daily mask use, 3 scenarios, IHME
(14) Global Percent cumulative vaccinated, 2021 on, IHME
(0a) Regions together Daily deaths, with GLOBAL, JOHN
(0b) Regions together Daily deaths, without GLOBAL, JOHN
(1) Regions together Daily deaths, with GLOBAL, IHME, IMPE
(2) Regions together Daily deaths, without GLOBAL, IHME, IMPE
(3) Regions together Daily deaths, with GLOBAL, DELP, SRIV
(4) Regions together Daily deaths, without GLOBAL, DELP, SRIV
(5) Regions together Daily excess deaths, with GLOBAL, IHME
(6) Regions together Daily excess deaths, without GLOBAL, IHME
(00a) Regions together Daily cases, with GLOBAL, JOHN
(00b) Regions together Daily cases, without GLOBAL, JOHN
(00c) Regions together Daily cases, without GLOBAL, JOHN, Recent
(7) Regions together Daily infections, with GLOBAL, IHME, IMPE
(8) Regions together Daily infections, without GLOBAL, IHME, IMPE
(9) Regions together Daily cases, with GLOBAL, DELP, SRIV
(10) Regions together Daily cases, without GLOBAL, DELP, SRIV
(11) Regions together Total deaths, with GLOBAL, IHME, IMPE
(12) Regions together Total deaths, without GLOBAL, IHME, IMPE
(13) Regions together Total deaths, with GLOBAL, DELP, SRIV
(14) Regions together Total deaths, without GLOBAL, DELP, SRIV
(15) Regions together Total excess deaths, with GLOBAL, IHME
(16) Regions together Total excess deaths, without GLOBAL, IHME
(17) Regions together Total infections, with GLOBAL, IHME, IMPE
(18) Regions together Total infections, without GLOBAL, IHME, IMPE
(19) Regions together Total cases, with GLOBAL, DELP, SRIV
(20) Regions together Total cases, without GLOBAL, DELP, SRIV
(1) African region Daily deaths, reference scenarios, all time
(2) African region Daily deaths, reference scenarios, 2021 on
(2b) African region Daily deaths, reference scenarios, 2021 on, with IHME excess deaths
(3) African region Daily deaths, 3 scenarios, 2021 on
(3b) African region Daily deaths, 3 scenarios, 2021 on, IHME
(3c) African region Daily deaths, 3 scenarios, 2021 on, IMPE
(4) African region Daily cases or infections, reference scenarios, all time
(5) African region Daily cases or infections, reference scenarios, 2021 on
(6) African region Daily cases or infections, 3 scenarios, 2021 on
(6b) African region Daily cases, 2021
(6c) African region Daily estimated infections IHME IMPE to reported cases JOHN, main scenarios, 2021 on
(7) African region Hospital-related outcomes, all time
(8) African region Hospital-related outcomes, 2021 on, without IHME Bed need and IMPE Hospital demand
(9) African region Daily deaths estimated to reported, reference scenarios, 2021
(1) Americas region Daily deaths, reference scenarios, all time
(2) Americas region Daily deaths, reference scenarios, 2021 on
(2b) Americas region Daily deaths, reference scenarios, 2021, with IHME excess deaths
(3) Americas region Daily deaths, 3 scenarios, 2021 on
(3b) Americas region Daily deaths, 3 scenarios, 2021 on, IHME
(3c) Americas region Daily deaths, 3 scenarios, 2021 on, IMPE
(4) Americas region Daily cases or infections, reference scenarios, all time
(5) Americas region Daily cases or infections, reference scenarios, 2021 on
(6) Americas region Daily cases or infections, 3 scenarios, 2021 on
(6b) Americas region Daily cases, 2021 on
(6c) Americas region Daily estimated infections IHME IMPE to reported cases JOHN, main scenarios, 2021 on
(7) Americas region Hospital-related outcomes, all time
(8) Americas region Hospital-related outcomes, 2021 on, without IHME Bed need and IMPE Hospital demand
(9) Americas region Daily deaths estimated to reported, reference scenarios, 2021 on
(1) Americas region, Canada and United States Daily deaths, reference scenarios, all time
(2) Americas region, Canada and United States Daily deaths, reference scenarios, 2021 on
(2b) Americas region, Canada and United States Daily deaths, reference scenarios, 2021, with IHME excess deaths
(3) Americas region, Canada and United States Daily deaths, 3 scenarios, 2021 on
(3b) Americas region, Canada and United States Daily deaths, 3 scenarios, 2021 on, IHME
(3c) Americas region, Canada and United States Daily deaths, 3 scenarios, 2021 on, IMPE
(4) Americas region, Canada and United States Daily cases or infections, reference scenarios, all time
(5) Americas region, Canada and United States Daily cases or infections, reference scenarios, 2021 on
(6) Americas region, Canada and United States Daily cases or infections, 3 scenarios, 2021 on
(6b) Americas region, Canada and United States Daily cases, 2021 on
(6c) Americas region, Canada and United States Daily estimated infections IHME IMPE to reported cases JOHN, main scenarios, 2021 on
(7) Americas region, Canada and United States Hospital-related outcomes, all time
(8) Americas region, Canada and United States Hospital-related outcomes, 2021 on, without IHME Bed need and IMPE Hospital demand
(9) Americas region, Canada and United States Daily deaths estimated to reported, reference scenarios, 2021 on
(1) Americas region, without Canada and United States Daily deaths, reference scenarios, all time
(2) Americas region, without Canada and United States Daily deaths, reference scenarios, 2021 on
(2b) Americas region, without Canada and United States Daily deaths, reference scenarios, 2021, with IHME excess deaths
(3) Americas region, without Canada and United States Daily deaths, 3 scenarios, 2021 on
(3b) Americas region, without Canada and United States Daily deaths, 3 scenarios, 2021 on, IHME
(3c) Americas region, without Canada and United States Daily deaths, 3 scenarios, 2021 on, IMPE
(4) Americas region, without Canada and United States Daily cases or infections, reference scenarios, all time
(5) Americas region, without Canada and United States Daily cases or infections, reference scenarios, 2021 on
(6) Americas region, without Canada and United States Daily cases or infections, 3 scenarios, 2021 on
(6b) Americas region, without Canada and United States Daily cases, 2021 on
(6c) Americas region, without Canada and United States Daily estimated infections IHME IMPE to reported cases JOHN, main scenarios, 2021 on
(7) Americas region, without Canada and United States Hospital-related outcomes, all time
(8) Americas region, without Canada and United States Hospital-related outcomes, 2021 on, without IHME Bed need and IMPE Hospital demand
(9) Americas region, without Canada and United States Daily deaths estimated to reported, reference scenarios, 2021 on
(1) Eastern Mediterranean region Daily deaths, reference scenarios, all time
(2) Eastern Mediterranean region Daily deaths, reference scenarios, 2021 on
(2b) Eastern Mediterranean region Daily deaths, reference scenarios, 2021 on, with IHME excess deaths
(3) Eastern Mediterranean region Daily deaths, 3 scenarios, 2021 on
(3b) Eastern Mediterranean region Daily deaths, 3 scenarios, 2021 on, IHME
(3c) Eastern Mediterranean region Daily deaths, 3 scenarios, 2021 on, IMPE
(4) Eastern Mediterranean region Daily cases or infections, reference scenarios, all time
(5) Eastern Mediterranean region Daily cases or infections, reference scenarios, 2021 on
(6) Eastern Mediterranean region Daily cases or infections, 3 scenarios, 2021 on
(6b) Eastern Mediterranean region Daily cases, 2021 on
(6c) Eastern Mediterranean region Daily estimated infections IHME IMPE to reported cases JOHN, main scenarios, 2021 on
(7) Eastern Mediterranean region Hospital-related outcomes, all time
(8) Eastern Mediterranean region Hospital-related outcomes, 2021 on, without IHME Bed need and IMPE Hospital demand
(9) Eastern Mediterranean region Daily deaths estimated to reported, reference scenarios, 2021 on
(1) European region Daily deaths, reference scenarios, all time
(2) European region Daily deaths, reference scenarios, 2021 on
(2b) European region Daily deaths, reference scenarios, 2021 on, with IHME excess deaths
(3) European region Daily deaths, 3 scenarios, 2021 on
(3b) European region Daily deaths, 3 scenarios, 2021 on, IHME
(3c) European region Daily deaths, 3 scenarios, 2021 on, IMPE
(4) European region Daily cases or infections, reference scenarios, all time
(5) European region Daily cases or infections, reference scenarios, 2021 on
(6) European region Daily cases or infections, 3 scenarios, 2021 on
(6b) European region Daily cases, 2021 on
(6c) European region Daily estimated infections IHME IMPE to reported cases JOHN, main scenarios, 2021 on
(7) European region Hospital-related outcomes, all time
(8) European region Hospital-related outcomes, 2021 on, without IHME Bed need and IMPE Hospital demand
(9) European region Daily deaths estimated to reported, reference scenarios, 2021 on
(1) South-East Asian region Daily deaths, reference scenarios, all time
(2) South-East Asian region Daily deaths, reference scenarios, 2021 on
(2b) South-East Asian region Daily deaths, reference scenarios, 2021 on, with IHME excess deaths
(3) South-East Asian region Daily deaths, 3 scenarios, 2021 on
(3b) South-East Asian region Daily deaths, 3 scenarios, 2021 on, IHME
(3c) South-East Asian region Daily deaths, 3 scenarios, 2021 on, IMPE
(4) South-East Asian region Daily cases or infections, reference scenarios, all time
(5) South-East Asian region Daily cases or infections, reference scenarios, 2021 on
(6) South-East Asian region Daily cases or infections, 3 scenarios, 2021 on
(6b) South-East Asian region Daily cases, 2021 on
(6c) South-East Asian region Daily estimated infections IHME IMPE to reported cases JOHN, main scenarios, 2021 on
(7) South-East Asian region Hospital-related outcomes, all time
(8) South-East Asian region Hospital-related outcomes, 2021 on, without IHME Bed need and IMPE Hospital demand
(9) South-East Asian region Daily deaths estimated to reported, reference scenarios, 2021 on
(1) Western Pacific region Daily deaths, reference scenarios, all time
(2) Western Pacific region Daily deaths, reference scenarios, 2021 on
(2b) Western Pacific region Daily deaths, reference scenarios, 2021 on, with IHME excess deaths
(3) Western Pacific region Daily deaths, 3 scenarios, 2021 on
(3b) Western Pacific region Daily deaths, 3 scenarios, 2021 on, IHME
(3c) Western Pacific region Daily deaths, 3 scenarios, 2021 on, IMPE
(4) Western Pacific region Daily cases or infections, reference scenarios, all time
(5) Western Pacific region Daily cases or infections, reference scenarios, 2021 on
(6) Western Pacific region Daily cases or infections, 3 scenarios, 2021 on
(6b) Western Pacific region Daily cases, 2021 on
(6c) Western Pacific region Daily estimated infections IHME IMPE to reported cases JOHN, main scenarios, 2021 on
(7) Western Pacific region Hospital-related outcomes, all time
(8) Western Pacific region Hospital-related outcomes, 2021 on, without IHME Bed need and IMPE Hospital demand
(9) Western Pacific region Daily deaths estimated to reported, reference scenarios, 2021 on
