! Read the Canada COVID-19 epidemic models situation report No 41 - 2022-04-01 here.
DELP 20220328, IHME 20220322, IMPE 20220131, SRIV 20220401
Note that the latest available update of IMPE (20220131) is more than 2 months old as of 20220401.
Summary 20220401:
Reported cases and deaths are on the increase at Canada's national and provincial levels. This might signify a new surge – the 7th wave at the national level.
Saskatchewan's reporting of COVID-19 deaths and cases was interrupted recently. It seems that Nova Scotia is experiencing the same problem in reporting. In recent weeks, the official reports of daily deaths from Canada to the World Health Organization indicate that the Ministry of Health of Canada thought twice. They said they did not have that many deaths they had reported before, i.e., reports of negative numbers of daily deaths.
International and periodically updated models' predictions are divergent about the current and the next surges. IMPE model is functionally next to retirement: their latest predictions as of 2022-04-01 dates back to 2022-01-31.
The latest update of the PHAC-McMaster model dates back to 2022-02-18 as of 2022-04-01.
Canada’s government “Update on COVID-19 in Canada: Epidemiology and Preparedness, April 1, 2022” does not contain any quantitative predictions for the future of the epidemic in Canada. They have two narrative scenarios for future, named “Realistic Scenario: Ongoing transmission with intermittent waves” and “Worst-case Scenario: Emergence of an immune evasive and severe VOC”. These two scenarios might be summarized as bad and worse.
The ongoing seeable and sizable decrease in mask use is not well-captured by the models. For instance, graph (9) "Canada National Daily mask use, IHME, 2020 on" shows the IHME model's assumption that the population mask use level of early March 2022 (e.g., 66% at the national level) will continue at the same value until July 1st. However, there has been a considerable decrease in mask use in March after provincial governments released the mask mandates. This untrue assumption is among the reasons why the reported cases and deaths do not follow the trajectories predicted by the models.
Premature release of mandates for using masks and physical distancing serves the political and economic purposes of the governments, not the public health and survival needs of the populations.
The strengths and weaknesses of the international and periodically updated COVID-19 pandemic models are discussed here.
Selected graphs - Canada, National
Selected graphs - Canada, Provinces together
Selected graphs - Alberta
Selected graphs - British Columbia
Selected graphs - Manitoba
Selected graphs - New Brunswick
Selected graphs - Nova Scotia
Selected graphs - Ontario
Selected graphs - Quebec
Selected graphs - Saskatchewan
(1) Canada Daily deaths, Reference scenarios, 2020 on
(2) Canada National Daily deaths, All scenarios, 2021 on
(3) Canada National Daily cases or infections, Reference scenarios, 2020 on
(4) Canada National Daily cases or infections, All scenarios, 2021 on
(5) Canada National Daily hospital-related outcomes, Reference scenarios, 2020 on
(6) Canada National Daily hospital-related outcomes, without IHME Bed need, IMPE Hospital demand, Reference scenarios, 2021 on
(7) Canada National Daily Infection hospitalization and fatality ratios, Reference scenario, IHME, 2021 on
(8) Canada National Daily percent change in mobility, IHME, 2020 on
(9) Canada National Daily mask use, IHME, 2020 on
(10) Canada National Percent cumulative vaccinated, IHME, 2020 on
(1) Canada Provinces Daily reported deaths, JOHN, 2020 on
(2) Canada Provinces Daily reported deaths, JOHN, 2021 on
(3) Canada Provinces Daily reported deaths, JOHN, 2022
(4) Canada Provinces Daily reported deaths, without National, Ontario, and Quebec, JOHN, 2022
(5) Canada Provinces Daily reported cases, JOHN, 2020 on
(6) Canada Provinces Daily reported cases, JOHN, 2021 on
(7) Canada Provinces Daily reported cases, JOHN, 2022
(8) Canada Provinces Daily reported cases, without National, Ontario, and Quebec, JOHN, 2022
(9) Canada Provinces Daily deaths, Reference scenario, IHME, 2020 on
(10) Canada Provinces Daily deaths, Reference scenario, IHME, 2021 on
(11) Canada Provinces Daily deaths, Reference scenario, IHME, 2022
(12) Canada Provinces Daily infections, Reference scenario, IHME, 2020 on
(13) Canada Provinces Daily infections, Reference scenario, IHME, 2021 on
(14) Canada Provinces Daily infections, Reference scenario, IHME, 2022
(1) Alberta Daily deaths, Reference scenario, 2020 on
(2) Alberta Daily deaths, Reference scenario, 2021 on
(3) Alberta Daily cases or infections, Reference scenario, 2020 on
(4) Alberta Daily cases or infections, Reference scenario, 2021 on
(1) British Columbia Daily deaths, Reference scenario, 2020 on
(2) British Columbia Daily deaths, Reference scenario, 2021 on
(3) British Columbia Daily cases or infections, Reference scenario, 2020 on
(4) British Columbia Daily cases or infections, Reference scenario, 2021 on
(1) Manitoba Daily deaths, Reference scenario, 2020 on
(2) Manitoba Daily deaths, Reference scenario, 2021 on
(3) Manitoba Daily cases or infections, Reference scenario, 2020 on
(4) Manitoba Daily cases or infections, Reference scenario, 2021 on
(1) Nova Scotia Daily deaths, Reference scenario, 2020 on
(2) Nova Scotia Daily deaths, Reference scenario, 2021 on
(3) Nova Scotia Daily cases or infections, Reference scenario, 2020 on
(4) Nova Scotia Daily cases or infections, Reference scenario, 2021 on
(1) Ontario Daily deaths, Reference scenario, 2020 on
(2) Ontario Daily deaths, Reference scenario, 2021 on
(3) Ontario Daily cases or infections, Reference scenario, 2020 on
(4) Ontario Daily cases or infections, Reference scenario, 2021 on
(1) Quebec Daily deaths, Reference scenario, 2020 on
(2) Quebec Daily deaths, Reference scenario, 2021 on
(3) Quebec Daily cases or infections, Reference scenario, 2020 on
(4) Quebec Daily cases or infections, Reference scenario, 2021 on
(1) Saskatchewan Daily deaths, Reference scenario, 2020 on
(2) Saskatchewan Daily deaths, Reference scenario, 2021 on
(3) Saskatchewan Daily cases or infections, Reference scenario, 2020 on
(4) Saskatchewan Daily cases or infections, Reference scenario, 2021 on
