! Read the Canada COVID-19 epidemic models situation report No 25 - 2021-12-17 here.
DELP 20211216, IHME 20211119, IMPE 20211205, SRIV 20211217
IMPE update 20211205 released on 20211215.
None of the models have included the Omicron variant as of 2021-12-17.
Therefore, the “WORSE” scenarios of IHME and IMPE Omicron-less models should be closer to unfolding reality on the ground, than their “Reference” scenarios.
The IHME model has not included the Omicron variant as of their 2021-11-19 update (latest update available on 2021-12-17). Sources: "COVID-19 estimate downloads" (https://www.healthdata.org/covid/data-downloads). "This page was last updated at 12:00 p.m. Pacific, November 19, 2021. IHME is working to incorporate new data surrounding the Omicron variant into its projections. Our team is monitoring the growing concerns, and we are working to provide new models that reflect the latest developments. We will update the forecasts as soon as we’ve factored Omicron into the scenarios."
The Imperial model has not included the Omicron variant as of their 2021-12-05 update (latest update available on 2021-12-17). Sources: "COMBINED Situation Report for COVID-19 2021-12-05" (https://github.com/mrc-ide/global-lmic-reports/blob/master/combined_reports.pdf) "This report adjusts for the Delta variant, with the variant become dominant over the period: 2021-09-13 to 2021-11-12."
Imperial College on Omicron: Neil Ferguson, et al. Imperial College COVID-19 response team. Report 49: Growth, population distribution and immune escape of Omicron in England. 16 December 2021. https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/mrc-gida/2021-12-16-COVID19-Report-49.pdf
The DELPHI model (https://covidanalytics.io/projections) and the SRIV model (https://scc-usc.github.io/ReCOVER-COVID-19/) do not mention inclusion of alpha.
Given all available evidence so far, Omicron will most probably leave more cases, hospitalizations, and even deaths compared to previous waves, due to exponential growth – even with counterfactual scenarios of full lockdowns and highest coverages 3 doses of mRNA vaccines. Percent fatality and hospitalization lower than delta, but absolute numbers, higher.
Most politicians and half-politician-half-scientists repeat the same negligent mistakes with every new variant of concern. Refractory to treatment.
Farshad Pourmalek, December 15, 2021
Selected graphs - Canada, national
Selected graphs - Canada, provinces
Selected graphs - Alberta
Selected graphs - British Columbia
Selected graphs - Manitoba
Selected graphs - New Brunswick
Selected graphs - Newfoundland and Labrador
Selected graphs - Northwest Territories
Selected graphs - Nova Scotia
Selected graphs - Nunavut
Selected graphs - Ontario
Selected graphs - Prince Edward Island
Selected graphs - Quebec
Selected graphs - Saskatchewan
Selected graphs - Yukon
(1) Canada Daily deaths, reference scenarios, all time
(2) Canada Daily deaths, reference scenarios, 2021
(3) Canada Daily deaths, 3 scenarios, 2021
(4) Canada Daily cases or infections, reference scenarios, all time
(5) Canada Daily cases or infections, reference scenarios, 2021
(6) Canada Daily cases or infections, 3 scenarios, 2021
(6b) Canada Daily estimated infections IHME IMPE to reported cases JOHN, main scenarios, 2021
(7) Canada Hospital-related outcomes, all time
(8) Canada Hospital-related outcomes, 2021, without IHME Bed need and IMPE Hospital demand
(9) Canada Daily deaths estimated to reported, reference scenarios, 2021
(10) Canada Daily cases or infections estimated to reported, reference scenarios, 2021
R effective, IHME, not available for Canada at the national level.
(11) Canada Daily Infection-outcomes ratios, 3 scenarios, IHME, 2021
(11b) Canada Daily infection hospitalization & fatality ratios, 3 scenarios, IHME, 2021
Daily mobility, IHME, not available for Canada at the national level.
(12) Canada Daily mask use, 3 scenarios, IHME
(13) Canada Percent cumulative vaccinated, IHME
(1) Canada provinces Daily reported deaths, reference scenarios, all time, IHME
(2) Canada provinces Daily excess deaths, reference scenarios, all time, IHME
(3) Canada provinces Daily infections, reference scenarios, all time, IHME
(4) Canada provinces [Daily infections, reference scenarios, all time, PHAC]
PHAC not in this uptake.
(5) Canada provinces [Daily infections, reference scenarios, all time, PHAC, without the national level]
PHAC not in this uptake.
(1) Alberta Daily deaths, reference scenarios, all time
(2) Alberta Daily deaths, reference scenarios, 2021
(3) Alberta Daily deaths, 3 scenarios, 2021
(4) Alberta Daily cases or infections, reference scenarios, all time
(5) Alberta Daily cases or infections, reference scenarios, 2021
(6) Alberta Daily cases or infections, 3 scenarios, 2021
(6b) Alberta Daily estimated infections IHME to reported cases JOHN, main scenarios, 2021
(7) Alberta Hospital-related outcomes, all time
(8) Alberta Hospital-related outcomes, 2021, without IHME Bed need and IMPE Hospital demand
(9) Alberta Daily deaths estimated to reported, reference scenarios, 2021
(10) Alberta Daily cases or infections estimated to reported, reference scenarios, 2021
(11) Alberta R effective, 3 scenarios, IHME
(12) Alberta Daily Infection-outcomes ratios, 3 scenarios, IHME, 2021
(12b) Alberta Daily infection hospitalization & fatality ratios, 3 scenarios, IHME, 2021
(13) Alberta Daily mobility, 3 scenarios, IHME
(14) Alberta Daily mask use, 3 scenarios, IHME
(15) Alberta Percent cumulative vaccinated, IHME
(1) British Columbia Daily deaths, reference scenarios, all time
(2) British Columbia Daily deaths, reference scenarios, 2021
(3) British Columbia Daily deaths, 3 scenarios, 2021
(4) British Columbia Daily cases or infections, reference scenarios, all time
(5) British Columbia Daily cases or infections, reference scenarios, 2021
(6) British Columbia Daily cases or infections, 3 scenarios, 2021
(6b) British Columbia Daily estimated infections IHME to reported cases JOHN, main scenarios, 2021
(7) British Columbia Hospital-related outcomes, all time
(8) British Columbia Hospital-related outcomes, 2021, without IHME Bed need and IMPE Hospital demand
(9) British Columbia Daily deaths estimated to reported, reference scenarios, 2021
(10) British Columbia Daily cases or infections estimated to reported, reference scenarios, 2021
(11) British Columbia R effective, 3 scenarios, IHME
(12) British Columbia Daily Infection-outcomes ratios, 3 scenarios, IHME, 2021
(12b) British Columbia Daily infection hospitalization & fatality ratios, 3 scenarios, IHME, 2021
(13) British Columbia Daily mobility, 3 scenarios, IHME
(14) British Columbia Daily mask use, 3 scenarios, IHME
(15) British Columbia Percent cumulative vaccinated, IHME
(1) Manitoba Daily deaths, reference scenarios, all time
(2) Manitoba Daily deaths, reference scenarios, 2021
(3) Manitoba Daily deaths, 3 scenarios, 2021
(4) Manitoba Daily cases or infections, reference scenarios, all time
(5) Manitoba Daily cases or infections, reference scenarios, 2021
(6) Manitoba Daily cases or infections, 3 scenarios, 2021
(6b) Manitoba Daily estimated infections IHME to reported cases JOHN, main scenarios, 2021
(7) Manitoba Hospital-related outcomes, all time
(8) Manitoba Hospital-related outcomes, 2021, without IHME Bed need and IMPE Hospital demand
(9) Manitoba Daily deaths estimated to reported, reference scenarios, 2021
(10) Manitoba Daily cases or infections estimated to reported, reference scenarios, 2021
(11) Manitoba R effective, 3 scenarios, IHME
(12) Manitoba Daily Infection-outcomes ratios, 3 scenarios, IHME, 2021
(12b) Manitoba Daily infection hospitalization & fatality ratios, 3 scenarios, IHME, 2021
(13) Manitoba Daily mobility, 3 scenarios, IHME
(14) Manitoba Daily mask use, 3 scenarios, IHME
(15) Manitoba Percent cumulative vaccinated, IHME
New Brunswick only predicted in DELP model.
(1) New Brunswick Daily deaths, reference scenarios, all time
(2) New Brunswick Daily cases, reference scenarios, all time
Newfoundland and Labrador only predicted in DELP model.
(1) Newfoundland and Labrador Daily deaths, reference scenarios, all time
(2) Newfoundland and Labrador Daily cases, reference scenarios, all time
Northwest Territories predicted by none of the models. Reports to WHO available.
(1) Northwest Territories Daily deaths, reference scenarios, all time
(2) Northwest Territories Daily cases, reference scenarios, all time
(1) Nova Scotia Daily deaths, reference scenarios, all time
(2) Nova Scotia Daily deaths, reference scenarios, 2021
(3) Nova Scotia Daily deaths, 3 scenarios, 2021
(4) Nova Scotia Daily cases or infections, reference scenarios, all time
(5) Nova Scotia Daily cases or infections, reference scenarios, 2021
(6) Nova Scotia Daily cases or infections, 3 scenarios, 2021
(6b) Nova Scotia Daily estimated infections IHME to reported cases JOHN, main scenarios, 2021
(7) Nova Scotia Hospital-related outcomes, all time
(8) Nova Scotia Hospital-related outcomes, 2021, without IHME Bed need and IMPE Hospital demand
(9) Nova Scotia Daily deaths estimated to reported, reference scenarios, 2021
(10) Nova Scotia Daily cases or infections estimated to reported, reference scenarios, 2021
(11) Nova Scotia R effective, 3 scenarios, IHME
(12) Nova Scotia Daily Infection-outcomes ratios, 3 scenarios, IHME, 2021
(12b) Nova Scotia Daily infection hospitalization & fatality ratios, 3 scenarios, IHME, 2021
(13) Nova Scotia Daily mobility, 3 scenarios, IHME
(14) Nova Scotia Daily mask use, 3 scenarios, IHME
(15) Nova Scotia Percent cumulative vaccinated, IHME
Nunavut predicted by none of the models. Reports to WHO available.
(1) Nunavut Daily deaths, reference scenarios, all time
(2) Nunavut Daily cases, reference scenarios, all time
(1) Ontario Daily deaths, reference scenarios, all time
(2) Ontario Daily deaths, reference scenarios, 2021
(3) Ontario Daily deaths, 3 scenarios, 2021
(4) Ontario Daily cases or infections, reference scenarios, all time
(5) Ontario Daily cases or infections, reference scenarios, 2021
(6) Ontario Daily cases or infections, 3 scenarios, 2021
(6b) Ontario Daily estimated infections IHME to reported cases JOHN, main scenarios, 2021
(7) Ontario Hospital-related outcomes, all time
(8) Ontario Hospital-related outcomes, 2021, without IHME Bed need and IMPE Hospital demand
(9) Ontario Daily deaths estimated to reported, reference scenarios, 2021
(10) Ontario Daily cases or infections estimated to reported, reference scenarios, 2021
(11) Ontario R effective, 3 scenarios
(12) Ontario Daily Infection-outcomes ratios, 3 scenarios, IHME, 2021
(12b) Ontario Daily infection hospitalization & fatality ratios, 3 scenarios, IHME
(13) Ontario Daily mobility, 3 scenarios, IHME
(14) Ontario Daily mask use, 3 scenarios, IHME
(15) Ontario Percent cumulative vaccinated, IHME
Prince Edward Island predicted by none of the models. Reports to WHO available.
(1) Prince Edward Island Daily deaths, reference scenarios, all time
(2) Prince Edward Island Daily cases, reference scenarios, all time
(1) Quebec Daily deaths, reference scenarios, all time
(2) Quebec Daily deaths, reference scenarios, 2021
(3) Quebec Daily deaths, 3 scenarios, 2021
(4) Quebec Daily cases or infections, reference scenarios, all time
(5) Quebec Daily cases or infections, reference scenarios, 2021
(6) Quebec Daily cases or infections, 3 scenarios, 2021
(6b) Quebec Daily estimated infections IHME to reported cases JOHN, main scenarios, 2021
(7) Quebec Hospital-related outcomes, all time
(8) Quebec Hospital-related outcomes, 2021, without IHME Bed need and IMPE Hospital demand
(9) Quebec Daily deaths estimated to reported, reference scenarios, 2021
(10) Quebec Daily cases or infections estimated to reported, reference scenarios, 2021
(11) Quebec R effective, 3 scenarios, IHME
(12) Quebec Daily Infection-outcomes ratios, 3 scenarios, IHME, 2021
(12b) Quebec Daily infection hospitalization & fatality ratios, 3 scenarios, IHME, 2021
(13) Quebec Daily mobility, 3 scenarios, IHME
(14) Quebec Daily mask use, 3 scenarios, IHME
(15) Quebec Percent cumulative vaccinated, IHME
(1) Saskatchewan Daily deaths, reference scenarios, all time
(2) Saskatchewan Daily deaths, reference scenarios, 2021
(3) Saskatchewan Daily deaths, 3 scenarios, 2021
(4) Saskatchewan Daily cases or infections, reference scenarios, all time
(5) Saskatchewan Daily cases or infections, reference scenarios, 2021
(6) Saskatchewan Daily cases or infections, 3 scenarios, 2021
(6b) Saskatchewan Daily estimated infections IHME to reported cases JOHN, main scenarios, 2021
(7) Saskatchewan Hospital-related outcomes, all time
(8) Saskatchewan Hospital-related outcomes, 2021, without IHME Bed need and IMPE Hospital demand
(9) Saskatchewan Daily deaths estimated to reported, reference scenarios, 2021
(10) Saskatchewan Daily cases or infections estimated to reported, reference scenarios, 2021
(11) Saskatchewan R effective, 3 scenarios, IHME
(12) Saskatchewan Daily Infection-outcomes ratios, 3 scenarios, IHME, 2021
(12b) Saskatchewan Daily infection hospitalization & fatality ratios, 3 scenarios, IHME, 2021
(13) Saskatchewan Daily mobility, 3 scenarios, IHME
(14) Saskatchewan Daily mask use, 3 scenarios, IHME
(15) Saskatchewan Percent cumulative vaccinated, IHME
Yukon predicted by none of the models. Reports to WHO available.
(1) Yukon Daily deaths, reference scenarios, all time
(2) Yukon Daily cases, reference scenarios, all time
