! Read the Canada COVID-19 epidemic models situation report No 13 - 2021-09-28 here.
DELP 20210927, IHME 20210923, IMPE 20210924, LANL 20210926, SRIV 20210928, PHAC 20210903
IMPE update 20210924 (2021-09-24_v8.csv.zip) was released on 20210928.
The LANL COVID-19 Team made its last real-time forecast on September 27th, 2021. [for 20210926].
The Source document used for acquisition of PHAC-McMaster model 20210903 estimates:
Public Health Agency of Canada. Update on COVID-19 in Canada: Epidemiology and Modelling, September 3, 2021. https://www.canada.ca/content/dam/phac-aspc/documents/services/diseases-maladies/coronavirus-disease-covid-19/epidemiological-economic-research-data/update-covid-19-canada-epidemiology-modelling-20210903-en.pdf
Methods: The CSV files containing outputs of the "PHAC-McMaster model" in the above-mentioned document could not be located on the Internet. Therefore, the graphs from the above-mentioned document were digitized. See acquisition of their estimates here. || See graph digitization settings here.
Reference scenario: If we maintain the current levels of transmission.
Better scenario: If public health measures reduce transmission by 25%.
Worse scenario: If further reopening increases transmission by 25%.
PHAC-McMaster model Scenarios for cases hospitalized per 100 K population by combinations of Vaccinations and Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions:
Reference scenario: Updated scenario with current rate of vaccination.
Better scenario: Updated scenario with increased uptake among ages 18-39 and expedited vaccination rate.
IHME update 20210928 includes a few new types of estimates, including Cumulative Vaccinated.
Selected graphs - Canada, national
Selected graphs - Canada, provinces
Selected graphs - Alberta
Selected graphs - British Columbia
Selected graphs - Manitoba
Selected graphs - Nova Scotia
Selected graphs - Ontario
Selected graphs - Quebec
Selected graphs - Saskatchewan
(1) Canada Daily deaths, reference scenarios, all time
(2) Canada Daily deaths, reference scenarios, 2021
(3) Canada Daily deaths, 3 scenarios, 2021
(4) Canada Daily cases or infections, reference scenarios, all time
(5) Canada Daily cases or infections, reference scenarios, 2021
(6) Canada Daily cases or infections, 3 scenarios, 2021
(7) Canada Hospital-related outcomes, all time
(7b) Canada Hospital-related outcomes, all time, with PHAC
(7c) Canada Hospital-related outcomes, all time, with PHAC, with IHME bed capacity and ICU capacity
Note: The value of the "IHME All bed capacity" is overwhelmingly different from that of the "PHAC Hospital capacity for COVID-19 patients”.
(8) Canada Hospital-related outcomes, 2021, without IHME Bed need and IMPE Hospital demand
(9) Canada Daily deaths estimated to reported, reference scenarios, 2021
(10) Canada Daily cases or infections estimated to reported, reference scenarios, 2021
R effective, IHME, not available for Canada at the national level.
(11) Canada Daily Infection-outcomes ratios, 3 scenarios, IHME
Daily mobility, IHME, not available for Canada at the national level.
(12) Canada Daily mask use, 3 scenarios, IHME
(13) Canada Percent cumulative vaccinated, IHME
(1) Canada provinces Daily reported deaths, reference scenarios, all time, IHME
(2) Canada provinces Daily excess deaths, reference scenarios, all time, IHME
(3) Canada provinces Daily infections, reference scenarios, all time, IHME
(4) Canada provinces Daily infections, reference scenarios, all time, PHAC
(5) Canada provinces Daily infections, reference scenarios, all time, PHAC, without the national level
(1) Alberta Daily deaths, reference scenarios, all time
(2) Alberta Daily deaths, reference scenarios, 2021
(3) Alberta Daily deaths, 3 scenarios, 2021
(4) Alberta Daily cases or infections, reference scenarios, all time
(5) Alberta Daily cases or infections, reference scenarios, 2021
(6) Alberta Daily cases or infections, 3 scenarios, 2021
(7) Alberta Hospital-related outcomes, all time
(8) Alberta Hospital-related outcomes, 2021, without IHME Bed need and IMPE Hospital demand
(9) Alberta Daily deaths estimated to reported, reference scenarios, 2021
(10) Alberta Daily cases or infections estimated to reported, reference scenarios, 2021
(11) Alberta R effective, 3 scenarios, IHME
(12) Alberta Daily Infection-outcomes ratios, 3 scenarios, IHME
(13) Alberta Daily mobility, 3 scenarios, IHME
(14) Alberta Daily mask use, 3 scenarios, IHME
(15) Alberta Percent cumulative vaccinated, IHME
(1) British Columbia Daily deaths, reference scenarios, all time
(2) British Columbia Daily deaths, reference scenarios, 2021
(3) British Columbia Daily deaths, 3 scenarios, 2021
(4) British Columbia Daily cases or infections, reference scenarios, all time
(5) British Columbia Daily cases or infections, reference scenarios, 2021
(6) British Columbia Daily cases or infections, 3 scenarios, 2021
(7) British Columbia Hospital-related outcomes, all time
(8) British Columbia Hospital-related outcomes, 2021, without IHME Bed need and IMPE Hospital demand
(9) British Columbia Daily deaths estimated to reported, reference scenarios, 2021
(10) British Columbia Daily cases or infections estimated to reported, reference scenarios, 2021
(11) British Columbia R effective, 3 scenarios, IHME
(12) British Columbia Daily Infection-outcomes ratios, 3 scenarios, IHME
(13) British Columbia Daily mobility, 3 scenarios, IHME
(14) British Columbia Daily mask use, 3 scenarios, IHME
(15) British Columbia Percent cumulative vaccinated, IHME
(1) Manitoba Daily deaths, reference scenarios, all time
(2) Manitoba Daily deaths, reference scenarios, 2021
(3) Manitoba Daily deaths, 3 scenarios, 2021
(4) Manitoba Daily cases or infections, reference scenarios, all time
(5) Manitoba Daily cases or infections, reference scenarios, 2021
(6) Manitoba Daily cases or infections, 3 scenarios, 2021
(7) Manitoba Hospital-related outcomes, all time
(8) Manitoba Hospital-related outcomes, 2021, without IHME Bed need and IMPE Hospital demand
(9) Manitoba Daily deaths estimated to reported, reference scenarios, 2021
(10) Manitoba Daily cases or infections estimated to reported, reference scenarios, 2021
(11) Manitoba R effective, 3 scenarios, IHME
(12) Manitoba Daily Infection-outcomes ratios, 3 scenarios, IHME
(13) Manitoba Daily mobility, 3 scenarios, IHME
(14) Manitoba Daily mask use, 3 scenarios, IHME
(15) Manitoba Percent cumulative vaccinated, IHME
(1) Nova Scotia Daily deaths, reference scenarios, all time
(2) Nova Scotia Daily deaths, reference scenarios, 2021
(3) Nova Scotia Daily deaths, 3 scenarios, 2021
(4) Nova Scotia Daily cases or infections, reference scenarios, all time
(5) Nova Scotia Daily cases or infections, reference scenarios, 2021
(6) Nova Scotia Daily cases or infections, 3 scenarios, 2021
(7) Nova Scotia Hospital-related outcomes, all time
(8) Nova Scotia Hospital-related outcomes, 2021, without IHME Bed need and IMPE Hospital demand
(9) Nova Scotia Daily deaths estimated to reported, reference scenarios, 2021
(10) Nova Scotia Daily cases or infections estimated to reported, reference scenarios, 2021
(11) Nova Scotia R effective, 3 scenarios, IHME
(12) Nova Scotia Daily Infection-outcomes ratios, 3 scenarios, IHME
(13) Nova Scotia Daily mobility, 3 scenarios, IHME
(14) Nova Scotia Daily mask use, 3 scenarios, IHME
(15) Nova Scotia Percent cumulative vaccinated, IHME
(1) Ontario Daily deaths, reference scenarios, all time
(2) Ontario Daily deaths, reference scenarios, 2021
(3) Ontario Daily deaths, 3 scenarios, 2021
(4) Ontario Daily cases or infections, reference scenarios, all time
(5) Ontario Daily cases or infections, reference scenarios, 2021
(6) Ontario Daily cases or infections, 3 scenarios, 2021
(7) Ontario Hospital-related outcomes, all time
(8) Ontario Hospital-related outcomes, 2021, without IHME Bed need and IMPE Hospital demand
(9) Ontario Daily deaths estimated to reported, reference scenarios, 2021
(10) Ontario Daily cases or infections estimated to reported, reference scenarios, 2021
(11) Ontario R effective, 3 scenarios
(12) Ontario Daily Infection-outcomes ratios, 3 scenarios, IHME
(13) Ontario Daily mobility, 3 scenarios, IHME
(14) Ontario Daily mask use, 3 scenarios, IHME
(15) Ontario Percent cumulative vaccinated, IHME
(1) Quebec Daily deaths, reference scenarios, all time
(2) Quebec Daily deaths, reference scenarios, 2021
(3) Quebec Daily deaths, 3 scenarios, 2021
(4) Quebec Daily cases or infections, reference scenarios, all time
(5) Quebec Daily cases or infections, reference scenarios, 2021
(6) Quebec Daily cases or infections, 3 scenarios, 2021
(7) Quebec Hospital-related outcomes, all time
(8) Quebec Hospital-related outcomes, 2021, without IHME Bed need and IMPE Hospital demand
(9) Quebec Daily deaths estimated to reported, reference scenarios, 2021
(10) Quebec Daily cases or infections estimated to reported, reference scenarios, 2021
(11) Quebec R effective, 3 scenarios, IHME
(12) Quebec Daily Infection-outcomes ratios, 3 scenarios, IHME
(13) Quebec Daily mobility, 3 scenarios, IHME
(14) Quebec Daily mask use, 3 scenarios, IHME
(15) Quebec Percent cumulative vaccinated, IHME
(1) Saskatchewan Daily deaths, reference scenarios, all time
(2) Saskatchewan Daily deaths, reference scenarios, 2021
(3) Saskatchewan Daily deaths, 3 scenarios, 2021
(4) Saskatchewan Daily cases or infections, reference scenarios, all time
(5) Saskatchewan Daily cases or infections, reference scenarios, 2021
(6) Saskatchewan Daily cases or infections, 3 scenarios, 2021
(7) Saskatchewan Hospital-related outcomes, all time
(8) Saskatchewan Hospital-related outcomes, 2021, without IHME Bed need and IMPE Hospital demand
(9) Saskatchewan Daily deaths estimated to reported, reference scenarios, 2021
(10) Saskatchewan Daily cases or infections estimated to reported, reference scenarios, 2021
(11) Saskatchewan R effective, 3 scenarios, IHME
(12) Saskatchewan Daily Infection-outcomes ratios, 3 scenarios, IHME
(13) Saskatchewan Daily mobility, 3 scenarios, IHME
(14) Saskatchewan Daily mask use, 3 scenarios, IHME
(15) Saskatchewan Percent cumulative vaccinated, IHME
