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statistics.md

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Probability

Probability of happening

1 / possible outcomes
1 / 4 = 25%

Happening in a row (3 times)

Probability ^ instances
0.25 ^ 3 = 0.0156 ~ 1.5%

NOT happening

1 - probability
1 - 0.25 = 0.75

NOT happening in a row (15 times)

Probability NOT ^ instances
(1 - 0.25) ^ 15
0.75 ^ 15 = 0.133 ~ 13%

Happening after NOT happening (15 times)

1 - (1 - 0.25) ^ 15
1 - 0.75 ^ 15
1 - 0.133 = 0.867 ~ 87%